Saturday, March 5, 2011

Pincus: The Western Conference Post-Deadline - Basketball News & NBA Rumors -

Now that the NBA's trade deadline has passed, it's time to look ahead to the offseason.  Of course with the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expiring after June, it's very difficult to project cap space, spending power and player movement.

Terms like "hard cap", "franchise tag" and "salary rollbacks" could change the picture dramatically.  Additionally, the new deal may include an amnesty clause to help a team get out from under a single, bad contract (often referred to as the Allan Houston Rule in the current CBA).

Here's the breakdown of the Eastern Conference from Wednesday.  The following is a look at the 15 teams in the Western Conference, alphabetically by city:

The Dallas Mavericks are hoping the addition of Corey Brewer will give them what they need this season to compete for the title.  It will be interesting to see where owner Mark Cuban and the Mavericks go after this season.

In addition to Tyson Chandler, Caron Butler and DeShawn Stevenson whose combined $27.3 million come off the books, Jason Terry can be bought out for $5 million. 

The Mavericks' payroll can drop down all the way from about $86 million to $54 million.  Of course that may not be enough to go shopping in free agency. 

Given the talent available in 2012 and the fact the team can get down to about $54 million in guaranteed money, can Dallas keep some of their core free agents on one-year deals?

As always, the Mavericks are a hefty taxpayer, looking at about $15.6 million in luxury taxes.

Financially it's amazing how well the Denver Nuggets came off in the Carmelo Anthony trade.  Not only did they go from being a significant taxpayer to a full $3 million under the threshold, Denver added a number of young prospects in Wilson Chanlder, Danilo Gallinari and Timofey Mozgov.

Raymond Felton is not only economical but he can play.  Wilson Chandler is solid and will be a restricted free agent this summer.

After the season, Kenyon Martin's gigantic deal finally comes off the books.  J.R. Smith will be a free agent and Nene can opt out of his final $11.6 million deal.

In theory, the Nuggets may go into free agency with just $30 million in committed salary.  That number can dip as lower to $12 million in 2012 (not including any draft picks), but that would involve cutting just about everyone on the roster.

Nene has been looking for an extension and the team has until the end of June to get something done.  Then again it may be best for Denver to see what the new CBA looks like before locking anything in.  The same can be said of Smith and Martin.

The key free agent the Nuggets should really keep is Arron Afflalo who will be restricted after this season.

The Golden State Warriors brought back Troy Murphy at the trade deadline only to buy him out.  Al Thornton was added off the waiver wire.  The Warriors aren't taxpayers.  At 27-33, they're six games behind the eighth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies for the final playoff spot.

Next season they'll have just under $49 million in guaranteed salary.  In the summer of 2012, Golden State has about $44 million on the books.  Guard Stephen Curry's rookie deal won't need to be extended until 2013.

It will be interesting to see how long the team commits to the Monta Ellis/Curry backcourt given the tandem's lack of size/defensive strength.  With David Lee and Andris Biedrins committed too long-term in the middle, it's hard to imagine the Warriors ever locking people down consistently.

Biedrins is available in trade and rookie Ekpe Udoh has already helped shore up the squad defensively.

Despite almost $20 million coming off the team's books, the Warriors don't have any major free agents this summer (the closest being the restricted Reggie Williams).

The numbers aren't in just yet on the Jared Jeffries buy-out, but if the Houston Rockets were able to get about $1.5 million off of his $6.9 million, the team would be just under the luxury tax.

Houston made the bold move of trading Aaron Brooks, who was having a down year after an ankle injury, to the Phoenix Suns.  Before their recent loss to the L.A. Clippers the Rockets had finally hit .500 after what had been a disappointing season.

While they may fall short, playoffs remain a possibility.

Once the summer hits the team will have to decide what to do with Yao Ming but given his injury situation, it may be time to let him go.  Perhaps more importantly Houston needs to re-up Chuck Hayes.

Otherwise nearly the entire team is under contract but at about $48 million instead of the current $72 million.

If the Rockets buy out Brad Miller in 2012 for under a million (as agreed to in his contract) and don't pick up options on Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, and Terrence Williams, Houston will have about $31 million in guaranteed money in 2012.

The Los Angeles Clippers are about $4.8 million under the cap.  They managed to trade Baron Davis, who never lived up to his contract and "franchise player" promise in L.A. for a more economical Mo Williams.

With Blake Griffin blowing up as a rookie, the Clippers are looking for that third piece to pair with Blake and Eric Gordon.  DeAndre Jordan will be a restricted free agent this summer and L.A. expects to keep him long-term.

Around the draft in June, the Clippers will look to bring in a high level small forward with Chris Kaman and perhaps Al-Farouq Aminu as bait.  The team should also have Minnesota's 2012 pick unprotected, but that's an asset they're unlikely to trade.

Other key free agents this summer include Craig Smith, Ike Diogu and Jamario Moon.  Diogu may the keeper after joining the team midseason.

Gordon will be a restricted free agent the summer of 2012.  While Eric may get extended before the summer, if the team can wait they will have more spending power to sign an additional free agent - depending on what happens with Jordan and any trade acquisitions this summer.

Currently the Clippers have just under $25 million fully committed in 2012.

The Los Angeles Lakers are one of the league's biggest taxpayers with about $20 million in tax expected for this season.  Next year probably won't see much change economically.

Shannon Brown and Matt Barnes can both opt out of their deals.  The timing will be interesting given the uncertainty of a lockout but there's a decent chance both test the free agent waters.  L.A. will have Brown's Bird Rights while Barnes will be coming off his first season with the club.

The team may be looking at a similar salary structure in the summer of 2012 but with additional flexibility given Andrew Bynum's $16.1 million isn't guaranteed and Lamar Odom's $8.2 million is only $2.4 million guaranteed.

Even if L.A. cut both, the team isn't likely to get under the cap (assuming the rules somewhat resemble the current structure).  While L.A. probably won't be able to sign a free agent outright, Bynum and Odom can be sent out at $24.3 million with only about 10% guaranteed.

Given the Orlando Magic's history with Shaquille O'Neal leaving them high and dry for the Lakers could there possibly be any incentive in trading Dwight Howard to L.A.?

On the surface . . . no.

Obviously the CBA could change the landscape.  Carmelo Anthony was able to get his wish in a trade to the New York Knicks.  Howard to the Lakers would really depend on the rules and how forceful he is in getting what he wants.  And that's making a sizable leap to say Dwight would even want to go to L.A., let alone try to bully his way to get there.

The Memphis Grizzlies are just barely under the luxury tax with a roster they believe will make the playoffs (they're all growing beards until they clinch or even through the postseason; the facial hair situation is not entirely clear).

While the team tried to trade O.J. Mayo, he's still with the team when a last minute deal with the Indiana Pacers fell through. 

The big question will be the health of Rudy Gay for the postseason after a shoulder injury.  The team also just signed Leon Powe off the waiver wire.

After this season the Grizzlies have just under $36 million in guaranteed money but are likely to keep the emerging Sam Young under contract for under a million.

Marc Gasol is a restricted free agent.  Zach Randolph and Shane Battier are unrestricted.  That's basically the team's front line with only undersized but capable reserve Darrell Arthur left under contract.

Randolph has pushed for an extension for some time but the Grizzlies want to wait to see what the new CBA looks like before committing.  Keeping Gasol should be easier given his restricted status.

The team's spending power the next two summers depends on what they do with their big men tandem.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are at least $3.9 million under the cap, depending on how much Eddy Curry gave back on his buy-out.  While the Wolves have improved in some areas this season (Kevin Love, Michael Beasley, etc.), the record is unimpressive at 15-47.

Barring trades, the Wolves have 12 players already under contract for next season.  In addition to what could be a top three pick, along with Ricky Rubio (if they can get him to come overseas and), that would make 14.

Based on the current cap numbers and rule structure, the Wolves probably won't have any cap room to speak of.

With the number of variables involved, that could change in 2012 when both Love, Beasley and Randolph will be restricted free agents.

Given that the New Orleans Hornets are owned by the NBA, it rankled a few feathers when they traded Marcus Thornton for Carl Landry.  Both Mark Cuban and Phil Jackson questioned the validity of the move.

It will be interesting to see what kind of latitude New Orleans has this summer in free agency.  Then again, if the league does contract, it will be the Hornets who are first to go.

Currently they're not a tax-payer.  David West is expected to opt out of his final year at $7.5 million after this season and may be one of the top available free agents.  Willie Green, Marco Belinelli (restricted), Landry and a number of others will also be available.

If there was a dispersal draft, the list would probably include just Chris Paul, Emeka Okafor, Trevor Ariza, Jarrett Jack, Quincy Pondexter and possibly Aaron Gray.

In the meantime, if West does opt out and David Andersen is cut, the team will have just $43 million guaranteed this summer.  Additionally, if Paul opts out of his final year in 2012, the team has just $27 million currently scheduled on the books.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are right at the cap after using whatever space they had earlier in the season to give Nick Collison and extension - and then after the Kendrick Perkins trade, to give the big-man a long-term deal.

With Jeff Green out, the Thunder have removed their primary free agent question from the table.  Other than Nazr Mohammed, Daequan Cook and the non-guaranteed money going to Royal Ivey, OK City has 11 returning players next season at just over $48 million.

It helps drafting Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, but the Thunder are the model of a small market team putting together a contender economically. 

Of course that may be more difficult when Westbrook is eligible for an extension in 2012 when the team's spending power will probably go to the All-Star guard.

The Phoenix Suns have to decide on Vince Carter's contract next summer.  Given how his play has tailed off, is there any way the team can consider keeping him at $18.3 million when they can cut him for $4 million?

Currently the Suns aren't a taxpayer.  Without Carter, their salary dips to about $52 million.

Grant Hill will also be a key free agent as will Aaron Brooks (restricted).

Given that Steve Nash will be going into the last year of his contract, the Suns may invest in Books long term and toy with sending Nash out via trade.

Phoenix has under $29 million guaranteed in 2012.

The Portland Trail Blazers are over the tax by about $4.2 million, more if they keep Jarron Collins past his 10-day contract.  Despite a flurry of injuries (again) and some serious knee trouble for star Brandon Roy, the Blazers have managed to remain in the playoff hunt.

At 34-27, they're two games behind the Nuggets for the fifth seed in the West but just two games ahead of the ninth-seeded Suns.

The Blazers have two burning questions this summer: what to do with injured restricted free agent Greg Oden and do they guarantee the salary of Andre Miller at $7.8 million?

With what Miller brings and how he never takes a game off, the odds would seem high he sticks (a trade is always a possibility) although that might mean luxury taxes once again (assuming there is a tax).

Oden's a tough one given he hasn't been able to get through a season healthy.

The team's salary drops off significantly in 2012 when Marcus Camby and Miller drop off.  Even then, the Blazers won't have major power unless they make additional moves.

The Sacramento Kings are in serious flux with the team considering a move to Anaheim after this season.  Given that the Lakers are leaving Fox Sports in 2012, the Kings may have a local television opportunity that may mean a third team in Southern California.

Sacramento has been struggling to draw fans and win ballgames.

The payroll is at the bottom of the league at just under $45 million.  The Kings will head into the summer below $29 million.

The Marcus Thornton pickup has been fruitful.  The former Hornet is averaging 21 points a game on 51.7% shooting (40.0% from three) for the Kings over four games.

The San Antonio Spurs are just under the tax while sitting on the league's best record.  Tim Duncan can opt out of the final year in his contract at $21 million.  Will he just finish out his deal and retire or look to extend?

Antonio McDyess is partially guaranteed ($2.64 million of his $5.2 million).  The Spurs will undoubtedly keep DeJuan Blair and Gary Neal on the cheap.  If McDyess stays, that's the same core of 11 players back next year.

If Duncan does retire before the 2012/13 season, the team could be looking at spending power that summer.

The Utah Jazz are above the luxury tax but with Andrei Kirilenko's contract dropping off this summer, Utah's salary drops significantly.

The team has a $3.7 million option on C.J. Miles but he's a productive player and that's probably a salary worth paying.

Other free agents include Ronnie Price, Kyrylo Fesenko and Earl Watson.

The Jazz stand to have plenty of spending power in 2012 after Mehmet Okur's deal comes off the books.

When it came to adding a shooting guard midseason, the Chicago Bulls had a long list of targets.  Among their top picks were Courtney Lee and Anthony Parker.  They had interest in O.J. Mayo and Raja Bell

Go down the list and eventually you'll get to Rasual Butler who has had clutch moments as a shooter in his career, but not for some time.

Given his availability off the waiver wire, the cheap price and the absence of any of the Bulls' higher choices . . . Rasual will do.

The team was hoping to add a guard who could not only shoot from outside and defend, but also handle the ball given that Derrick Rose will face a lot of attention once the playoffs start.  Playmaking is not Butler's strength.

The ideal pickup this summer would probably be restricted free agent Arron Afflalo although the Nuggets may make that difficult.

Ty Corbin Locked In Long-Term - Ronnie Price Out but Traveling

The Utah Jazz announced Thursday that guard Ronnie Price "will travel with the Utah Jazz on its four-game East Coast trip next week."

An MRI on Price's right foot showed that he indeed has a sprained big toe.

Price hasn't had much of an impact this season, averaging 3.1 points on 36.3% shooting and just 0.8 assists a game against 0.76 turnovers.

The Jazz in general have been searching for consistency the past month or two, falling to 10th in the West (losing a tough one at home to the Denver Nuggets on Thursday night).

Nonetheless, the team committed long-term to Jerry Sloan's replacement Ty Corbin

"I am confident that Tyrone is the right man to lead this team into the future. He is someone with longstanding ties to the Jazz and this community, and who has embraced the core philosophies and ideals this organization holds true. I feel that his character and leadership qualities will be true assets to the Jazz moving forward for many years to come," said Greg Miller, CEO of the Jazz.

Corbin is well-respected in the industry, coming in as candidate more than once for other franchises (Charlotte Bobcats, New Orleans Hornets, Atlanta Hawks, etc.).

"Ty is a driven individual and tireless worker who possesses all of the qualities we are looking for in a head coach," said President Randy Rigby.  "He has been widely recognized as one of the brightest young coaches around the league and we are thrilled to have him as head coach of the Jazz."

Given the midseason turnover - coaching staff and personnel - Corbin shouldn't be judged by the next six weeks of basketball.  The Jazz front office certainly won't.

"I am really excited about the opportunity to lead the Jazz, and to get to follow a legendary figure like Coach Sloan," said Corbin. "I am truly grateful that the Miller family has the confidence in me to allow me to lead this team into a new era."

Part of the problem, suggested a competing executive with another franchise, is that the Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap combination may just not be as good as Carlos Boozer/Mehmet Okur.  Of course Okur hasn't been the same player since he ruptured his Achilles' and Boozer signed as a free agent with the Chicago Bulls.

Former guard Deron Williams saw teammates like Boozer, Wesley Matthews, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer leaving and while Jefferson was brought in, there were concerns that Utah was actually improving.

Before Williams could become Carmelo Anthony - he became a New Jersey Net.

Now that guard Eric Gordon finally made his return to the L.A. Clippers lineup (wrist), the team reassigned rookie Willie Warren to the Bakersfield Jam of the NBADL.

While he hasn't had much of an opportunity to play with the Clippers this season (19 games at 7.1 minutes per - 1.9 points and 1.4 assists a contest), Warren put up solid numbers for the Jam in a six-game stretch last month.  Warren helped Bakersfield win five of six games, averaging 21 points, seven assists and 5.3 boards a game while shooting 50% from the field and 46% from behind the arc.

When looking at the draft board in the second round (54), the Clippers saw an opportunity to bring in one of Blake Griffin's former teammates at Oklahoma in Warren. 

It remains to be seen if Willie will get enough of an opportunity with the Clippers but in the meantime he's made an impact at the NBADL level.

Source: http://www.hoopsworld.com

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