With a whole year unusually chock full of superheroes and sequels, we take a look at what films we think will be a smash at the box office and what records you can expect to be broken.
We've already seen one of the five big superhero flicks opening this year: the somewhat average "Green Hornet," which really didn't make much of a splash in terms of box office earnings. We expect the similar we will said of Ryan Reynolds' "The Green Lantern," out in June. Though Reynolds is certainly at the top of our favorite actors list, the trailers for "The Green Lantern" fail to wow, and the hero himself lacks the star power of staples like Batman, Iron Man or Spider-man, which have all been big scorers at the box office.
Nate and I disagree on the potential of several other superheroes movies coming out. "X-Men: First Class," is also out in June.
Typically, X-Men films have always done well in their opening weekends, but have never had much staying power. And considering there is already a lackluster offshoot series about the Wolverine character, I have my doubts about “First Class” finding a strong audience.
Nate disagrees primarily because the characters of Charles Xavier (Patrick Stewart) and Magneto (Ian McKellen), whose stories are the focus of “First Class,” are so iconic and mysterious that he thinks it will bring out the franchise's large cult fan base in force.
"Thor" and "Captain America" also debut this year. Both superheroes are part of the Avengers comic book series. We've already seen a piece of this franchise with the "Iron Man" and "The Hulk" films. Our main concern with these films is that although they are part of a franchise, they are not sequels and thus could be a tough sell at the box office. You'll remember that although "Iron Man," was incredibly successful financially, "The Hulk" films didn't carry a lot of financial weight.
As for sequels, 2011 will mark the year of the biggest sequel ever – or rather the biggest conclusion to the biggest franchise ever.
The final chapter to the Harry Potter series comes out in July, and I predict that it will break a number of box office records. Part 1 of "The Deathly Hallows" is currently No. 6 on the top opening weekend record charts with a $125 million, and it's No. 10 on the all-time worldwide record charts, with a gross of just under a billion dollars. Although I don't think this final chapter can pass the likes of "Avatar" or "Titanic" in total gross, I think "The Dark Knight" is in trouble of losing the opening weekend record, which stands at $158.4 million. I also predict that this film will pass "The Sorcerer's Stone" as the top worldwide grosser in the franchise. In any case, all of the Harry Potter films are in at least the top 25 of both opening weekend records and all-time grossing records.
We can also expect a huge open for "Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 1," the beginning of the end for the popular vampire romance. The third film, "Twilight: Eclipse" wasn't the best of the series in terms of box office numbers. But given the highly anticipated vampire love scene, and Bella's pregnancy, this film is sure to draw a crowd. However, the franchise is also fast losing any family-friendliness it may have once had, which is a definite damage to potential attendance.
Another contender for a box office smash will be "Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides," which looks to be almost a rebooted sequel due to the fact that both Orlando Bloom and Kiera Knightly are gone. Part of the failure of Pirates 2 and 3 (artistically, not financially) was the weird romantic relationship between those two characters. With the focus back on Johnny Depp's Capt. Jack Sparrow, Disney might just be able to recapture the magic of the first film. Although wile this could definitely revitalize the series in terms of quality of story and filmmaking, I worry that some movie-goers will be a little too jaded about the previous films to make this one a smash. Nate doesn't think this will be a problem and says he'll be shocked if it doesn't clear $100 million in its opening weekend.
In terms of animated sequels, Pixar will release "Cars 2," and Dreamworks will showcase "Kung Fu Panda 2." Both will rake in a ton of cash and we aren't worried about "Cars 2," since Pixar has yet to make a box office flop, though Dreamworks hasn't had huge successes with its animated sequels. So viewers beware.
The last major contender for box office smash is "Transformers: Dark of the Moon," but it has some big missteps to fix. The first Transformers was a good start, but the mayhem of organic robots and undefined rules of physics in "Revenge of the Fallen" were too chaotic to be enjoyable. We'll see if taking the story back to an earlier time (the original 1969 moon landing) and slowing down the pace can revitalize our interest in the franchise.
Of course, sheer financial success at the box office is not the best way to judge a film, and later this month we'll be taking a look at what films -- big and small -- we are most excited for. They may not make the most money, but they may just be the best films of the year.
Tony Potter is a film critic, award-winning editor and an English professor at BYU-Idaho. He can be reached at tony@natetonymovies.com.
Nate and Tony at the Movies is a product of Nate and Tony Media LLC.
Copyright 2011 Teton Valley News. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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